The largest shutdown in US history is generating global uncertainty and affecting businesses in Brazil.
The longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which lasted for weeks until early November, increased uncertainty in the global economic landscape and raised concerns for Brazil, especially in sectors linked to exports and production chains. The shutdown of U.S. federal agencies has caused delays in inspections and certifications, and has affected logistical schedules, directly impacting agricultural exporters of meat, coffee, orange juice, and the aerospace industry, such as Embraer.
Experts highlight that the political impasse in Washington, with the unprecedented level of dispute and lack of dialogue between Democrats and Republicans, has left the market "in the dark" regarding official inflation and employment data, hindering projections for interest rates and investment decisions. For Brazil, the impact goes beyond the exchange rate, demanding pragmatism in the face of the new global geopolitical and economic scenario, marked by institutional crises in the US and the need to rethink automatic alignments with powers such as China and Russia.
Brazil's trade balance maintains a surplus, but faces challenges.
In the first week of November, the Brazilian trade balance registered a surplus of US$1.81 billion, a growth of 2% compared to the same period of the previous year. Exports totaled US$7.80 billion, an increase of 6%.4%, while imports totaled US$5.99 billion, an increase of 7%. In the accumulated year up to November, the surplus reaches US$54.21 billion, however, with a decrease of 16.3% compared to 2024.
Export highlights include the agricultural sector, with growth of 42.21% of the total cost per quarter (TP3), driven by meat, coffee, and other commodities, and the manufacturing industry, which advanced 10.71% of the total cost per quarter (TP3). On the other hand, the extractive industry suffered a decline of 22.71% of the total cost per quarter (TP3), reflecting sectoral challenges and the influence of the external environment.
The service sector and inflation indicate paths for the Brazilian economy.
Recent data from IBGE shows modest growth of 0.1% in the services sector in August, with an annual increase of 2.5%, signaling a gradual recovery. Furthermore, the financial market projects inflation of 4.55% for 2025, within the target range set by the Central Bank, which maintains the Selic rate at 15% per year to control prices. This outlook opens the door for a possible start of cuts in the basic interest rate, which could stimulate investments, including in startups and technology.
Events and trends in the technology and startup sector.
In South America, major players in the transportation sector will gather at a prominent event between November 11th and 14th, with the potential to boost innovation and business in logistics and mobility. The global climate of uncertainty and the need to adapt to new economic scenarios reinforce the importance of technology and startups as agents of transformation, capable of offering agile solutions to challenges such as supply chain and operational efficiency.
Photo by Charles Forerunner on Unsplash
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