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The Ibovespa registered a new record this Friday (14), closing above 157 thousand points, amid a scenario of investor optimism with the possibility of an interest rate cut in Brazil. The index advanced 0.37%, closing at 157,739 points, according to G1 data.
Expectations of falling interest rates boost the stock market.
The performance of the main Brazilian stock market index reflects expectations that inflation will continue to slow, which could pave the way for a reduction in the Selic rate. In October, the IPCA rose only 0.09%, the lowest level for the month since 1998, and has accumulated an increase of 4.68% in the last 12 months.
In the minutes of the last Copom meeting, the Central Bank reinforced that it sees a more benign inflation dynamic and removed sections that indicated concern about core inflation above the target. The Selic rate remains at 15%, but the market is already projecting a cut to 12.25% by the end of 2026.
Unemployment and inflation: mixed signals
Despite inflation still being above the target ceiling (4.51% of the 3-month period), the labor market remains strong. The unemployment rate fell in two states in the third quarter of 2025, according to IBGE, and the average job search time reached its lowest levels since 2015.
On the other hand, economic growth is expected to slow down. The government has reduced its GDP growth projection for 2025 to 2.161% of the total GDP per capita (TP3T), and for 2026 it expects only 1.781% of the TP3T, according to the Focus bulletin.
Impacts for investors and companies
- The Ibovespa's record high signals investor confidence in risk assets.
- Companies can benefit from increased liquidity and stock appreciation.
- Consumers may feel relieved by the potential drop in interest rates, but they still face inflationary pressure.
Photo by Danylo Harmatiy on Unsplash
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