Podcast about the subject Listen on Spotify
IPCA-15 rises to 0.62% and defies market expectations.
The preliminary inflation figures for November surprised analysts on Tuesday (26) with the National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15) advancing to 0,62%, The result is above projections that pointed to 0.50%. It reignites debates about the pace of interest rate cuts and puts pressure on expectations for 2026.
The indicator, released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), marks the highest value for November since 2021, when it registered 1.17%. In the accumulated 12 months, the IPCA-15 reached 4.77%, compared to 4.47% in the previous period.
What drove inflation up?
Food prices were the main culprits behind the accelerating inflation. In addition, airfares also contributed significantly to the higher-than-expected result, according to an analysis by Itaú BBA. The bank also highlights a qualitative deterioration in inflation, with an acceleration in the prices of underlying services.
Impact on interest rate expectations
The inflationary surprise reinforces caution in the financial market. XP warned that the risks to its forecast for the terminal Selic rate — currently at 13.25% — are tilted upwards, signaling a more aggressive inflationary scenario in the coming months.
The Central Bank, which maintains the Selic rate at 15%, reinforced in the minutes of its last meeting that it will keep the rate at this level for a fairly prolonged period to ensure that inflation reaches the 3% target.
Broader context
The result clashes with the optimism that dominated the market after October's inflation slowed to 0.09%, the lowest monthly level since 1998. That result had fueled hopes for faster interest rate cuts, but November's IPCA-15 puts inflation back at the center of concerns.
Financial market estimates for accumulated inflation in 2025 have been reduced to 4.55%, still above the upper limit of the tolerance target set at 4.5% by the National Monetary Council.
English