Future Prediction: How this week's events are shaping scenarios for the coming year.
This article is a forward-looking analysis, not a news report. Based on real events that occurred between November 8 and 11, 2025, we explore possible developments and trends for Brazil in the coming months.
The Paraná tornado as a harbinger of recurring climate crises.
On Saturday, November 8, a tornado devastated cities such as Rio Bonito do Iguaçu, Quedas do Iguaçu, and Laranjeiras do Sul, in Paraná. The event left at least 9 people with serious injuries, another 2 missing, and hundreds homeless.[2][3][5] Hospitals in the region treated approximately 500 people in just 12 hours.[3].
The scenario points to a reality that is expected to intensify: increasingly frequent and concentrated extreme weather events. Research already indicates that 9 out of 10 Brazilians feel the effects of climate change[8]. For 2026 and beyond, it is expected:
- Increase in public calamity decrees in states of the South and Southeast.
- Increased pressure on municipal budgets for reconstruction.
- Growing demand for resilient infrastructure and state contingency plans.
- Possible acceleration of climate mitigation policies at the federal level.
Governor Ratinho Júnior has already signaled his intention to declare a state of public calamity to expedite reconstruction[5]. This pattern is expected to be repeated in other regions, making disaster management a permanent agenda item.
Silent labor reform: meal vouchers as a barometer.
While attention was focused on Paraná, President Lula signed a decree on Tuesday (11) that restructures the Worker's Food Program (PAT)[7]. The change, published discreetly at the Palácio da Alvorada, has greater implications than it appears.
The main changes are:
- Limitation of fees to 3.6% for restaurants and supermarkets.
- Reduction of the payment period from 30 to 15 days.
- 90-day deadline for sector adaptation.
This reform signals a trend for 2026: stricter regulation of intermediary sectors (fintechs, meal voucher platforms, marketplaces) seeking to increase competition and reduce costs for workers. Similar models are expected to be applied to other benefit programs, creating pressure on the profit margins of financial technology companies.
Political judicialization intensifies
On the same November 8th, the Supreme Federal Court unanimously rejected appeals from former president Jair Bolsonaro and six others convicted for the coup plot[4]. Although it is a procedural outcome, the dynamics point to 2026:
- Political polarization will continue to fuel high-impact legal disputes.
- The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will continue to be the central arena for political conflicts.
- Possible new legal defense strategies could prolong trials for years.
Public safety under pressure: operations and legislative debate
Police operations in Rio de Janeiro continue to generate controversy. The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, praised the operation, but data from the Fogo Cruzado Institute points to discrepancies: while the government denies civilians were hit, the institute records at least 3 cases of people being shot[6].
By 2026, the trend is for an intensification of the debate on public security, with the possible approval of the anti-gang bill announced by the Chamber[6]. This could result in more frequent operations, but also in greater scrutiny of human rights.
What changes for you?
Workers: Meal vouchers should become more competitive; expect a wider variety of providers and potentially expanded benefits.
Technology companies: Stricter regulation in financial intermediation sectors; profit margins under pressure.
Residents of climate-prone regions: Increased frequency of extreme events will require investment in infrastructure and evacuation plans.
Civil society: Political polarization and judicialization are likely to intensify; participation in public debates will be even more relevant.
Photo by Kelly Sikkema on Unsplash
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