Brazilian stock market hits record high for the 14th time; dollar rises with

The Brazilian market continues to rise, but signs of caution are emerging.

The Ibovespa closed this Thursday (13) with a slight drop of 0.07%, quoted at 157,632 points, interrupting an impressive sequence of gains. Despite the punctual retreat, the Brazilian stock exchange accumulates a gain of 29.08% in 2025, the largest annual gain since 2019, when it rose 31.58%.

The dollar, in turn, closed up 0.10%, quoted at R$ 5.2975. The American currency gained strength after the end of the US government shutdown and amid new diplomatic moves between Brazil and the United States.

Brazil-US negotiations in focus.

The meeting between Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Niagara Falls, on the sidelines of the G7 summit, rekindled investors' attention. Discussions about tariff negotiations between the two countries influenced the behavior of the currency market.

Retail shows mixed signals in September.

The Monthly Retail Trade Survey (PMC) released by IBGE this Thursday revealed a heterogeneous scenario for Brazilian retail in September. Sales advanced 0.31% compared to the previous month and 21% compared to the previous year, as expected by the market.

Regionally, 15 of the 27 federative units registered a decline, with Maranhão (-2.2%) and Roraima (-2.0%) leading the losses. On the other hand, Tocantins (3.2%) and Amapá (2.9%) showed the best performances. In the expanded retail sector, Tocantins surged with an advance of 11.4%.

Featured corporate results

Casas Bahia The company reported revenue growth and improved EBITDA in the third quarter of 2025, thanks to greater operational efficiency. Sales advanced across all fronts — marketplace (3P), physical stores, and first-party (1P) — recovering after a long period of decline. However, the net loss exceeded expectations due to higher financial expenses.

Bank of Brazil Disappointed with weak results in Q3 2025. EBT was 111% below expectations due to increased provisions, pressured by the postponement of renegotiations in the rural segment. The deterioration in asset quality — especially in rural credit and retail portfolios — led the bank to revise its profit guidance downwards and raise its provision forecast. Delinquency indicators rose across the board, limiting visibility for recovery in the fourth quarter.

Ultracargo EBITDA experienced a slight decline due to a less favorable mix, while Waterways The company showed operational progress, with its leverage falling to 1.7x, benefiting from lower net debt and higher cash generation.

Stocks that doubled in value by 2025

While the overall index rises consistently, 14 stocks in the Ibovespa and Small Caps have doubled in value this year. Cogna leads the ranking with an appreciation of over 240%, demonstrating specific opportunities even in a market of generalized growth.

Economic agenda ahead.

This Friday (14), the market awaits data on vehicle production and sales for October from ANFAVEA. In the US, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released, with the potential to influence monetary policy decisions and, consequently, international flows to emerging markets such as Brazil.

Photo by ELISA KERSCHBAUMER on Unsplash