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The Brazilian financial market is experiencing a week of optimism, with the Ibovespa index rising consecutively.
The Brazilian financial market ended the week in a euphoric mood. The Ibovespa, the main index of B3, reached 155,257 points on Monday (10), with an increase of 0.77%, marking the 14th consecutive gain and hitting a record for the 11th time in a row. The stock exchange accumulates an appreciation of 29.08% in 2025, the largest annual increase since 2019, when it rose 31.58%.
Dollar weakens and real strengthens.
In the foreign exchange market, the scenario was also positive. The commercial dollar closed Monday at R$ 5.307, down 0.55%. The currency has accumulated a drop of 1.36% in November and a depreciation of 14.12% for the year, reflecting the strengthening of the real against the US dollar.
Key sectors drive gains.
Shares of oil companies, mining companies, and banks led the session's gains. The technology sector also registered an increase of 0.49%, while other segments more sensitive to exchange rates remained stable.
Inflation slows, but remains above target.
The Ministry of Finance revised its economic projections downwards on Thursday (13). The Secretariat of Economic Policy reduced the estimate of the IPCA (official inflation) from 4.8% to 4.6% in 2025, still above the ceiling of 4.5% established by the target system.
For 2026, the government projects inflation of 3.6%, returning to the tolerance range. The outlook for lower inflation reflects the appreciation of the real, a drop in wholesale agricultural and industrial inflation, as well as an oversupply of goods on a global scale.
GDP slows more than expected.
Despite optimism in the stock market, the real economy remains under pressure. The Ministry of Finance has reduced its GDP growth projection from 2.31% to 2.21% in 2025. Maintaining the Selic rate at a high level continues to impact economic activity and restrict the credit market.
Expectations for the next steps
Investors are awaiting signals from the Central Bank regarding when it will begin reducing the Selic rate. If October's inflation comes in lower than expected, there is a possibility that interest rate cuts will begin in January 2026, instead of March. Lower interest rates tend to stimulate a migration of investments to the stock market.
The federal government also expanded the Sovereign Brazil Plan, reducing the minimum impact on exports required for companies to apply for financing to support tariffs imposed by the United States from 5% to 1%.
Photo by Danylo Harmatiy on Unsplash
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