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Financial markets are booming while the government negotiates tariffs.
Brazil is experiencing a moment of euphoria in its financial markets this Thursday (November 13). The Ibovespa, the main index of the Brazilian stock exchange, closed the session with a marginal drop of 0.07%, at 157,633 points, after an impressive series of gains. The stock exchange has accumulated 29.08% of appreciation in 2025, the largest annual increase since 2019, when it registered a gain of 31.58%.
The commercial dollar closed at R$ 5.2975, with an increase of only 0.10%, maintaining the weakening trend of the American currency. In November, the currency has already accumulated a drop of 1.36%, and for the entire year it has fallen 14.12%. This scenario reflects investor confidence in the Brazilian economic outlook, despite international uncertainties.
Diplomatic negotiations take center stage.
While markets are trading higher, Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira is meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Niagara Falls, on the sidelines of the G7 summit. The meeting marks a crucial moment in negotiations over tariffs that Trump intends to impose on Brazil.
The American government confirmed the meeting after weeks of trade tension. The Brazilian proposal was submitted on November 4th, seeking to avoid the impact of tariffs that threaten Brazilian exporters, especially in the coffee sector. Hassett, Trump's economic advisor, indicated that the tariffs aim to prevent indirect exports to the US via third countries.
Brazil Sovereign Plan is expanded
In response to the tariff threat, the federal government has expanded access to the Sovereign Brazil Plan, a support program for companies affected by US tariffs. The new decree reduces the minimum export impact required to apply for financing from 5% to 1%. This measure democratizes access to the program and offers support to more struggling companies.
Brazilian trade shows mixed signals.
The Monthly Retail Trade Survey (PMC) released this Thursday revealed inconsistent performance in the retail sector in September. The restricted concept grew 0.3% month-on-month, while the expanded concept advanced only 0.1%. Regionally, 15 of the 27 federative units registered a decline, with Maranhão (-2.2%) and Roraima (-2.0%) standing out.
Tocantins led the increases with 3.2%, followed by Amapá (2.9%). In the broader retail sector, Tocantins surged with 11.4% of growth, while Paraná (-1.8%) and São Paulo (-1.6%) were among the biggest decliners. Pharmaceutical and perfumery items rose 1.3%, signaling resilience in specific segments.
What changes for investors and companies?
The series of increases in the stock market reflects expectations of interest rate cuts. Investors are awaiting the minutes of the Copom meeting released this Tuesday (11) and official inflation data in October. If inflation comes in lower than expected, the Central Bank may start cutting the Selic rate in January, instead of March 2026.
For the business sector, the expansion of the Sovereign Brazil Plan offers immediate relief, but negotiations with the US remain critical. The coffee sector, in particular, faces a sharp drop in sales to the US and fears that American consumers will adapt to the lack of Brazilian coffee, jeopardizing future recovery.
Photo by Sean Pollock on Unsplash
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