Future forecast: Brazil faces institutional and fiscal turbulence.
This article presents analyses and projections on political and economic trends based on recent events. It is a prediction of the future, not news.
Brazil is going through a period of institutional instability that could deepen in the coming months. In recent days, two crises have converged: the impasse over the Anti-Faction Bill in Congress and the Central Bank's maintenance of interest rates at 15%, signaling distrust in the government's fiscal management.
What happened this week?
Brazilian Congressman Sóstenes Cavalcante (PL) backed down on his proposal to equate organized crime with terrorism after pressure from the government and criticism from the opposition. The rapporteur, Derrite, altered the text, but maintained controversial points that provoked a reaction from the Minister of Justice, Ricardo Lewandowski, who warned about the unconstitutionality of changes to the responsibilities of the Federal Police.
Simultaneously, the Central Bank maintained the Selic rate at 15% per year, defying signals from the government for a reduction. The decision reflects concerns about inflation and fiscal sustainability.
Expected scenarios for the next 6 months
Accelerated political fragmentation
The rejection of the Anti-Faction Bill in its original form suggests that alliances in Congress will remain fragile. The government is expected to face increasing difficulties in passing priority agendas, with thematic blocs replacing stable coalitions. The approval of National Hip-Hop Day, while structural agendas are stalled, exemplifies this legislative fragmentation.
Persistent inflationary pressure
With interest rates at 15% per quarter, the cost of credit will remain high. Projections indicate that household consumption may decline between 2% and 4% in the coming quarters, especially in middle-income segments. Cash withdrawals fell by more than 3% while the amounts transacted quintupled, signaling a migration to digital means, but also distrust in purchasing power.
External pressure: tariffs and coffee
Trump signaled a reduction in coffee tariffs, but without specifying countries. This uncertainty creates volatility for Brazilian agribusiness. It is expected that clarification on US-Brazil trade negotiations will emerge within the next 90 days, with a potential impact on exports.
What changes for you?
Consumers: Credit will be more expensive for longer. Mortgage and vehicle financing are expected to remain above 12% per year.
Workers: Moderate wage pressure. With controlled inflation but high interest rates, real gains may be limited.
Investors: Expected volatility. Shares of companies dependent on credit (construction, retail) may suffer, while fixed-income securities remain attractive.
Indicators to monitor
Over the next 60 days, watch for: (1) the Anti-Faction Bill vote and market reaction; (2) accumulated inflation and the Central Bank's next decision in December; (3) communications from the Trump administration regarding tariffs; (4) government approval ratings in polls (Paraná Pesquisas recorded a recent drop).
Photo by Karla Vidal on Unsplash
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