Ibovespa regains strength and closes the week higher.

Brazilian stock market regains confidence after two negative trading days.

The Ibovespa ended the week recovering, advancing 0.37% last Friday (November 14) and accumulating a gain of 2.39% in the period. The main index of the Brazilian stock exchange closed at 157,739 points, signaling a return of risk appetite among investors after days of pressure.

The recovery marks a change of scenario. On Monday (17), the index rose 0.58%, reaching 158,079 points, driven mainly by Multiplan (MBRF) shares, which advanced 10.28%. The movement reflects consistent gains throughout the month, with the stock exchange accumulating a 24.3% appreciation in the year.

What moved the markets?

The recovery was fueled by two main factors. First, this season's corporate results showed positive numbers, reinforcing confidence in the fundamentals of listed companies. Second, the expectation that the Central Bank will begin cutting the Selic rate soon made risk assets more competitive.

The dollar, in turn, fell 0.02% on Friday, closing at R$ 5.2967. The US currency remains under pressure due to the difference in interest rates between Brazil and the United States, attracting US capital flows for Brazilian investments.

Economic scenario in transition

Despite the stock market recovery, the macroeconomic scenario remains challenging. The government revised its 2025 GDP growth projection, reducing it from 2.31% to a lower level. Inflation continues to be above the target ceiling, with the IPCA projected at 4.61% for the year — above the upper limit of 4.51% for the year.

The financial market estimates that the Selic rate will end 2025 at 15% per year, maintained at high levels to contain inflation. This combination of high interest rates and weaker growth puts pressure on the economy, but offers opportunities for investors seeking returns in Brazilian assets.

Next steps

The week of November 17-21 will be marked by key releases, including the minutes from the Copom meeting on the Selic rate and economic data from the United States following the end of the shutdown. Analysts point out that decisions on trade tariffs between Brazil and the US may also influence the stock market's performance in the coming days.

Photo by ELISA KERSCHBAUMER on Unsplash