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Ibovespa registers its 14th consecutive gain and reaches 155,000 points.
The Ibovespa index, the main indicator of the Brazilian stock exchange, closed up 0.77% this Monday (10), reaching 155,257 points. This was the 14th consecutive rise, a record that approaches the historical sequence of 15 consecutive rises registered in 1994, shortly before the Real Plan. In 2025, the Ibovespa accumulates an appreciation of 29.08%, the largest since 2019, when it rose 31.58%. The performance was mainly driven by shares in the oil, mining and banking sectors.
Foreign exchange market and interest rate expectations
The commercial dollar closed the day at R$ 5.307, down 0.55%. The American currency has shown volatility, influenced by internal and external factors. In Brazil, the financial market is attentive to the release of the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) and the official inflation index (IPCA) for October. If inflation comes in below expectations, it opens the door for the Central Bank to begin cutting the Selic rate as early as January 2026, which tends to further stimulate the stock market.
Tariff negotiations between Brazil and the United States
The previous day, the dollar rose to R$ 5.2975, reflecting the international scenario and recent diplomatic developments. Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met in Niagara Falls during the G7 summit to discuss tariffs imposed by the US on Brazil. The focus is on reversing tariffs reaching R$40%, imposed during the previous US administration, which could benefit Brazilian export sectors and improve the bilateral business environment.
Monthly Trade Survey and Regional Performance
IBGE released mixed data for retail trade in September. While 15 states registered a drop in sales, with Maranhão (-2.2%) and Roraima (-2.0%) among the worst results, Tocantins (3.2%) and Amapá (2.9%) led the increases. In the broader retail sector, Tocantins had a significant advance of 11.4%, contrasting with declines in Paraná (-1.8%) and São Paulo (-1.6%).
Impact of the 13th-month salary on the regional economy
The payment of the 13th salary is expected to inject approximately R$23 billion into the economy of Rio Grande do Sul by the end of 2025, according to projections by Dieese. This amount represents 5.91% of the total projected for Brazil, which is R$369.4 billion. Around 95.3 million Brazilians will benefit, with an average of R$3,512 per person, which could boost consumption and sectors related to retail and services.
Photo by Vadim Shevyrin on Unsplash
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