Geopolitics and AI: what to expect in the coming months

Predictions for the future based on current trends.

This article presents forecasts and analyses of global trends identified in the week of November 5-12, 2025. It is not news, but projections based on recent events and observed patterns.

The technological race between China and the US will intensify.

China resumed exports of metals and chips last week, signaling a trade easing strategy that could reshape global supply chains.[1][2] At the same time, the country is investing heavily in artificial intelligence and open models to challenge American technological dominance.[2]

Over the next 12 months, this dispute is expected to deepen. The trend is for both powers to accelerate investments in semiconductors, cloud computing and AI, creating two parallel technological spheres. Global financial institutions already predict that 80% of large Asian financial institutions will increase investments in AI by 2026.[3]

Financial markets will face increasing volatility.

Morgan Stanley analysts recently issued a warning about a possible 10 to 15% correction in global stock markets.[3] This forecast coincides with persistent inflationary pressures and the prospect of high interest rates maintained by the US Federal Reserve.

Over the next few months, investors are projected to adopt a more cautious stance. The integration of machine learning into risk analysis and portfolio management is expected to accelerate, redefining how capital is allocated globally. Emerging markets, including Brazil, may face increased volatility as a result of this reconfiguration.

Climate and economy: real implementation starts now.

The UN released the Yearbook of Global Climate Action 2025, ten years after the Paris Agreement.[4] The document shows progress: renewable capacity has more than doubled and forestry financing has quadrupled in the decade. However, it also points to critical gaps: investment in electricity grids remains low, deforestation has worsened, and building emissions have increased despite efficiency.[4]

The expectation for the coming period is that pressure for real implementation will intensify. COP30 in Brazil (November 2025) may be the last critical moment to produce credible climate mitigation plans.[5] Governments and companies that do not accelerate the energy transition will face an increasing risk of asset devaluation and market exclusion.

Geopolitics in South America: a struggle for influence.

Tensions between Venezuela and the United States grew during a summit in Colombia last week.[2] Simultaneously, Trump pledged US$$ 2,000 in aid and reinforced his political focus on South America.[2]

In the coming months, the region is expected to become an arena of more intense geopolitical dispute. Brazil, as the largest South American economy, may be the target of contradictory pressures: on one side, the US seeking to consolidate influence; on the other, China expanding commercial and strategic partnerships.[1][2] This could create opportunities for negotiation, but also risks of polarization.

Crypto and fintech regulation: accelerated global standardization

Canada has announced rules for stablecoins requiring reserves and transparency, following international standards.[1] This trend is expected to be replicated globally in the coming quarters.

The projection is that 2026 will mark the year of regulatory consolidation for the crypto sector. Traditional financial institutions will increase integration of blockchain and digital assets, while governments will establish clearer frameworks. This will reduce speculative volatility, but will also exclude smaller players without regulatory compliance.

Brazil's role in this scenario

Brazil emerges as a central player in multiple trends: hosting COP30, strengthening trade partnerships with China, negotiating American influence, and developing its technology and fintech sector.[1][2] The next decade will depend on decisions made in the coming months regarding geopolitical alignments and investments in energy transition.

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