Economy in November: high interest rates, rising stock market.

Interest rates maintained at 15% to contain persistent inflation.

The Central Bank (BC) decided to maintain the Selic rate at 15% per year, contradicting the federal government, which advocates for interest rate reductions to stimulate the economy. The decision aims to contain inflation, which, despite slowing down, remains above the annual target. In October, the official inflation index registered an increase of 0.09%, but the accumulated rate over 12 months remains high, justifying the maintenance of high interest rates for a prolonged period.

This stance by the Central Bank is generating tension with the government, which is still facing challenges in tax reform and the debate over the Wealth Tax, currently under review by the Supreme Federal Court (STF). Many companies report difficulties adapting to the new tax rules, which could impact investments and economic growth.

B3 registers its 14th consecutive rise and surpasses 155,000 points.

Amid a scenario of high interest rates, the Brazilian stock market (Ibovespa) reached its 14th consecutive increase, surpassing 155,000 points. In October, the index rose 3.82%, accumulating a 2025 appreciation of 29.08%, the largest since 2019. The performance was driven by shares in sectors such as oil companies, mining companies, and banks.

In the currency market, the commercial dollar closed lower, quoted at R$ 5.307, down 0.55%. Investors are awaiting the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) and the official inflation data for October to assess the possibility of cuts in the Selic rate as early as January 2026, which could further stimulate the stock market.

GDP slows and the economy faces sluggish growth.

Despite record job growth, the Brazilian economy is showing signs of slowing down. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by only 0.41% of the total cost per quarter (TP3) in the second quarter of 2025, a significant drop compared to the previous period. For the year, the growth projection has been reduced to 2.01% of the TP3, with expectations of a further slowdown to 1.51% of the TP3 in 2026.

The main challenge remains combating inflation, which requires high interest rates but results in slower economic growth. This paradoxical scenario demands a delicate balance between price controls and stimulating productive activity.

Government launches new phase of Contrata+Brasil for family farming.

In a move to strengthen the regional economy and food security, the federal government launched a new phase of the Contrata+Brasil program, which aims to expand public purchases of food from family farms. The program facilitates production planning for farmers, connecting them directly with the demand from public bodies, such as schools and the Army.

Since the program began in February 2025, R$ 8.3 million has already been transacted, with over a thousand public bodies and 6,600 registered suppliers. The initiative is also aligned with the climate commitments made by Brazil at COP30, promoting sustainable practices and valuing local biodiversity.

Green jobs are gaining ground with forestry projects in Brazil.

The World Bank highlights the potential of forests to generate jobs and promote sustainable economic development. In Brazil, reforestation and sustainable management projects in the Cerrado are expected to create approximately 1,800 direct and 800 indirect jobs, benefiting rural populations and promoting ecosystem restoration.

For every 100 forestry jobs, an average of 73 additional jobs are generated in the economy, including activities such as ecotourism and the production of non-timber forest products. This strategy reinforces the importance of the green economy for the country's future.

Photo by Mathieu Stern on Unsplash