Stock market hits record high and GDP slightly revised downwards.

Brazilian stock market registers 14th consecutive gain and surpasses 155,000 points.

The Ibovespa index, the main indicator of the Brazilian stock exchange, closed last Monday (10) at 155,257 points, with an increase of 0.77%, marking the 14th consecutive increase and approaching the historical record of 15 consecutive increases registered in 1994. The performance was driven by shares in sectors such as oil companies, mining companies and banks, reflecting optimism in the domestic and foreign markets. In 2025, the Ibovespa accumulates an appreciation of 29.08%, the largest since 2019.

The commercial dollar closed lower, quoted at R$ 5.307, down 0.55% on the day, influenced by expectations of the release of the minutes from the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) and October inflation data, which could open up space for cuts in the Selic rate as early as January 2026, stimulating investments in the stock market.

The government has revised its GDP projection for 2025 downwards.

On November 13th, the Ministry of Finance released a downward revision to its 2025 GDP growth projection, from 2.31% to 2.21%. The inflation expectation (IPCA) was also adjusted, from 4.81% to 4.61%. The economic slowdown in the third quarter, reflected in IBGE data, and the impact of restrictive monetary policy explain the revision.

Sectors such as agriculture had their growth projections raised to 9.51% of the total cost per quarter (TP3T), while industry and services were revised downwards, to 1.31% and 1.91%, respectively. The scenario is still marked by reduced credit availability and a slowdown in the labor market, although the unemployment rate remains low.

The external and fiscal context maintains uncertainties.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has improved its projection for the Brazilian economy in 2025, but warns of a sharper slowdown in 2026, amid high tariffs imposed by the US and uncertainties in global trade policy. Domestically, the delay in the government's announcement of the fiscal package is generating nervousness in the market, affecting the dollar exchange rate and the volatility of the real.

The Central Bank of Brazil held dollar sales auctions to curb the rise of the US currency, but pressure remains due to international factors and expectations regarding fiscal measures that will ensure the sustainability of public finances in the medium and long term.

Impacts for investors and consumers

• The prospect of cuts in the Selic rate could stimulate a migration of investments to the stock market, reinforcing the recent optimism in the stock market.
• The volatility of the dollar impacts sectors linked to imports, exports, and financing in foreign currency, influencing consumer prices and inflation.
• The economic slowdown and revised projections indicate a cautious outlook for growth and consumption in 2025.

Photo by Mathieu Stern on Unsplash