Ibovespa and dollar impacted by Brazil-US negotiations.

Financial market reacts to trade negotiations between Brazil and the US.

The main index of the Brazilian stock exchange, the Ibovespa, closed with a slight drop of 0.07%, to 157,633 points, while the commercial dollar rose 0.10%, quoted at R$ 5.2975, last Thursday (13). The movement reflects investors' attention to tariff negotiations between Brazil and the United States, in addition to domestic and international economic indicators.

Context of bilateral negotiations

Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Niagara Falls during the G7 summit to discuss progress on negotiations regarding US trade tariffs imposed on Brazil. The Brazilian government submitted a formal proposal in early November seeking to reverse tariffs reaching 40%, imposed during the Trump administration. The expectation is that these negotiations will alleviate the impact on Brazilian exports.

Economic indicators and market performance

Domestically, the Monthly Retail Trade Survey (PMC) released by IBGE showed mixed performance for retail sales in September, with growth in some states and decline in others, influencing expectations about the economy and monetary policy. Abroad, the end of the US government shutdown and the global political landscape are also influencing the market.

In the accumulated total for 2025, the Ibovespa shows a significant increase of 29.08%, the largest since 2019, driven by sectors such as oil companies, mining companies, and banks. In October, the stock market rose 3.82%, and the commercial dollar fell 0.55%, closing at R$ 5.307, reflecting a more optimistic environment.

Impacts for companies and investors

The Brazilian government has expanded access to the Sovereign Brazil Plan, which offers financial support to companies affected by US tariffs, reducing the minimum export impact requirement from 5% to 1%. This measure aims to mitigate the negative effects of the tariffs and strengthen the competitiveness of Brazilian companies in the international market.

Furthermore, recent corporate results show distinct scenarios: while Casas Bahia reported revenue growth and operational improvement in the third quarter of 2025, Banco do Brasil presented results below expectations, pressured by provisions and deterioration in credit quality, especially in the rural segment.

Perspectives

The financial market remains attentive to the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) and the official inflation figures for October, which may indicate the right time for cuts in the Selic rate, stimulating investments in the stock market. Trade negotiations with the US are also seen as a key factor for the economic performance and exports of Brazil in the coming months.

Photo by Vadim Shevyrin on Unsplash