Stock market hits record high and dollar falls amid trading.

Brazilian financial market rises while government negotiates tariffs.

The Ibovespa closed Thursday (13) with a slight drop of 0.07%, to 157,633 points, interrupting an impressive sequence of records. Despite the punctual retreat, the index accumulates an appreciation of 29.08% in 2025, the largest annual increase since 2019, when it registered 31.58%. The commercial dollar, in turn, operated higher by 0.10%, quoted at R$ 5.2975, reflecting market volatility in the face of international and domestic factors.

Historic streak of gains on the stock market.

The Brazilian stock market is experiencing a rare moment in its history. Until Tuesday (11), the Ibovespa had registered 14 consecutive increases, approaching the record of 15 consecutive increases established in May-June 1994, shortly before the Real Plan. With an appreciation of only 3.82% in October, the stock market is surprising for the accumulated gains in the year, driven mainly by shares of oil companies, mining companies and banks.

Among the positive highlights, 14 stocks from the Ibovespa B3, IDIV, Small Caps, and IBRX100 portfolios have accumulated appreciation exceeding 100% in 2025. Cogna leads the ranking with an increase of 240.16%, followed by Movida (199.03%) and Moura Dubeux (194.04%). This movement reflects a significant migration of investments towards variable income.

Business negotiations in focus

The meeting between Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, held in Niagara Falls on the sidelines of the G7 summit, gained prominence among investors. The conversation addressed the progress of tariff negotiations between Brazil and the United States, a critical issue for the market.

Brazil faces tariffs of 40% imposed by the Trump administration and is seeking to reverse the measure. The federal government has also expanded access for companies to the Sovereign Brazil Plan, an initiative aimed at supporting sectors affected by the tariffs. Mauro Vieira reported that Brazil submitted a negotiation proposal to the United States on November 4th.

Retail shows mixed signals.

The Monthly Retail Trade Survey (PMC) released by IBGE this Thursday revealed uneven performance in the retail sector in September. The sector showed an increase of 21% year-on-year and a rise of 0.31% month-on-month, but with heterogeneous regional distribution. Tocantins led the increases with 3.21%, while Maranhão registered a decrease of 2.21%.

Pharmaceutical and perfumery items rose 1.31% of the total price per quarter (TP3T), and personal care items advanced 0.51% of the total price per quarter (TP3T). In the broader retail sector, Tocantins showed a strong increase of 11.41% of the total price (TP3T), while Paraná (-1.81% of the total price) and São Paulo (-1.61% of the total price) were among the biggest declines.

Corporate results under pressure

Publicly traded companies reported mixed results in the third quarter. Casas Bahia showed revenue growth and improved EBITDA thanks to greater operational efficiency, with sales advancing across all fronts — marketplace, physical stores, and direct sales. However, the net loss exceeded expectations due to higher financial expenses.

Banco do Brasil, in turn, presented weak results in Q3 2025, with EBT 11% below expectations. The increase in provisions, pressured by the postponement of renegotiations in the rural segment, impacted the numbers. The deterioration in asset quality — especially in rural credit — led the bank to revise its profit guidance downwards and raise its provision forecast. Non-performing loan indicators rose across the board.

Economic agenda in focus.

Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes from the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meeting and the official inflation figures for October. If the IPCA (Consumer Price Index) comes in lower than expected, it will create room for Copom to begin cutting the Selic rate (Brazil's benchmark interest rate) in January, instead of March of next year. Lower interest rates encourage investment to shift towards the stock market.

Dollar in cumulative decline.

The US dollar is showing a consistent downward trend. The commercial dollar has accumulated a drop of 1.36% in November alone and 14.12% in 2025. Internal and external factors contribute to this trajectory, reflecting expectations about monetary policy and trade negotiations.

What changes for you?

For investors, the series of record highs on the stock exchange offers opportunities, but also risks. The concentration of gains in a few assets and the dependence on external factors—such as tariff negotiations—require caution. For consumers, the uneven performance of retail signals pressures in specific regions, while the possible reduction in interest rates could impact credit lines. Business owners, especially those affected by tariffs, should monitor Brazil-US negotiations and the opportunities presented by the Sovereign Brazil Plan.

Photo by Adam Śmigielski on Unsplash