Brazilian stock market hits record high and Brazil negotiates tariffs with the US.

Brazilian financial market continues to rise while government seeks to reverse US tariffs.

The Ibovespa closed Monday (November 10) at 155,257 points, up 0.77%, marking the 14th consecutive session of gains[3]. The Brazilian stock market has accumulated a 29.08% appreciation in 2025, the largest annual increase since 2019, when it registered 31.58%[3]. The index was mainly driven by shares of oil companies, mining companies and banks[3].

In the exchange market, the commercial dollar closed at R$ 5.307, down R$ 0.029 (-0.55%)[3]. The currency has accumulated a drop of 14.12% this year[3].

Domestic expectations drive investments.

The financial market is awaiting signals from the Central Bank regarding a reduction in the Selic rate. The release of the minutes from the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) and the official inflation data for October are crucial: if the IPCA comes in lower than expected, it opens the door for Copom to start cutting interest rates in January, instead of March[3]. Lower interest rates encourage the migration of investments to the stock market[3].

In retail, the services sector recorded its eighth consecutive increase, with expectations of benefits from the commercial actions of November and Black Friday[4].

Negotiations with the US in focus.

Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met in Washington to discuss the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration[5]. Brazil is seeking to reverse the 40% tariffs applied to Brazilian products[5].

The federal government has expanded access for companies to the Sovereign Brazil Plan, an initiative aimed at supporting sectors affected by tariffs[7]. BNDES also sees an expansion of aid to companies subject to overtaxation[1].

According to White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, the goal of the tariffs is to prevent indirect exports to the US via other countries[1]. The coffee sector, particularly affected, is seeing a sharp drop in sales to the US, with Americans already adapting to the lack of Brazilian product[1].

Economic data for the week

The economic agenda includes important releases: September Monthly Trade Survey (projection of 0.3% m/m), Anfavea data on vehicle production in October and US CPI[1][2]. In the US, the Federal Reserve will release its Balance Sheet[2].

Photo by Anne Nygård on Unsplash