Stock market, dollar, and startups: what moved the market?

Stock market and exchange rate in check due to external and internal scenario.

The Ibovespa closed the last trading session with a slight drop of 0.07%, quoted at 157,632 points, after a sequence of 14 consecutive gains that led the index to surpass 155,000 points for the first time in 2025. The historical record, according to Agência Brasil, is the largest since the Plano Real, with an accumulated increase of 29.08% in the year — the largest since 2019.

Despite the occasional pullback, the Brazilian market continues on an upward trajectory, driven by shares of oil companies, mining companies, and banks. The commercial dollar, in turn, fluctuated: it closed at R$ 5.2975, up 0.10% compared to the previous day, but still accumulates a drop of 14.12% in 2025.

Interest rate and inflation expectations

Investors are closely awaiting the minutes from the Copom meeting, to be released this Tuesday, and the official inflation data for October. If the IPCA comes in below expectations, there is room for the Central Bank to begin cutting the Selic rate as early as January, instead of March, which could further boost the flow of funds into the stock market.

Startups and technology: innovation in focus

While the financial market reacts to macroeconomic factors, the Brazilian startup and technology ecosystem is gaining prominence. The government has expanded access for companies to the Sovereign Brazil Plan, facilitating the entry of sectors affected by external tariffs. The measure reduces requirements that impact exports, opening up space for more technology and innovation companies to access credit lines and state support.

According to GCMais, the initiative seeks to strengthen national competitiveness at a time of international trade tensions, especially with the US. The meeting between Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Niagara Falls was marked by discussions on tariffs and trade agreements, with expectations of a partial reversal of the barriers imposed on Brazil.

Technology companies on the rise

Among the stocks that stood out the most in 2025, technology stocks lead the ranking in terms of appreciation. According to B3, 14 stocks from the Ibovespa and Small Caps doubled in value during the year, with Cogna standing out, registering an appreciation of over 100%. The education and educational technology sector has been one of the main drivers of growth, attracting national and foreign investors.

Impacts and debates

The current scenario calls into question the sustainability of the stock market's rise, given political and economic uncertainties. The deterioration in the quality of banking assets, especially in rural credit, is putting pressure on Banco do Brasil's profits, which has revised its profit guidance downwards and increased its provision forecast.

On the other hand, the advancement of the technology and startup sector shows that there is room for innovation and growth, even amidst an environment of high interest rates and exchange rate volatility. The performance of the retail sector, with an increase of 21% year-to-date and 0.31% month-to-date, also signals a recovery in consumption, although with regional variations.

Photo by Mobina Ghazazani on Unsplash