2025: AI, trade, and climate will redefine the global economy.

Predictions for the future based on current trends.

This article presents forecasts and analyses of global trends; it is not news about current events.

The current scenario that shapes the future.

The week of November 10-12, 2025, consolidated signs pointing to profound transformations in the global economy. The end of the shutdown in the US after 40 days[1], the expansion of trade between China and Brazil and the European Union[1], and the advances in sustainability at COP30[2] paint a picture where technology, protectionism and climate are the three pillars that will redefine the coming years.

Artificial intelligence: from promise to economic reality

AI will no longer be a promise by 2025. With 68% of professionals optimistic and 59% excited about its use in advertising[4], the technology promises to optimize activities and create value. The forecast is clear: the creator economy, currently valued at US$ 250 billion, should reach US$ 480 billion in 2027[4].

For the next few years, it is expected that:

• Companies that fail to integrate AI into critical processes will fall behind in operational efficiency.
• Micro and nano influencers will gain even more ground, challenging the traditional marketing model.
• Financial institutions will increase investments in AI: 80% from large Asian institutions already plan to expand spending by 2026[5]

Trade wars and the fragmentation of global trade

The scenario of trade tension is real. Goldman Sachs analysts warn that widespread tariffs could significantly impact growth[3]. The IMF reinforces this: protectionist policies exacerbate tensions and constrain supply chains[3].

The projection for 2025-2026 includes:

• Possible escalation of protectionist measures, especially involving the US and trading partners.
• Regional blocs (such as the EU and Mercosur) strengthening internal ties as a response
• China consolidating its position as an alternative global supplier, as it expands partnerships with Brazil and Europe[1]

Sustainability: from commitment to economic action

COP30 in Belém marked a turning point. Canada, Brazil, Italy and Japan co-sponsored an agreement to quadruple sustainable fuels by 2035[2]. It is not just ambition: it is a reconfiguration of markets.

The near future should see:

• Carbon pricing becoming the global standard, not the exception.
• Fossil energy companies facing increasing pressure from investors and regulators.
• Sectors such as construction, logistics, and manufacturing need to reinvent themselves rapidly.

Geopolitics: uncertainty as a constant

Tensions in Venezuela, escalation in Ukraine, and conflict in the Middle East continue to impact global supply chains[3]. For the next 12-24 months, it is expected that:

• Latin America gains strategic importance, with global powers seeking regional influence.
• Supply chains are becoming even more decentralized, increasing costs in the short term.
• Investments in security and logistics resilience are multiplying.

What changes for you and your company?

If you work in technology, the message is clear: AI is not optional. If you're in finance, prepare for volatility and opportunities in alternative markets. If you're in construction, logistics, or energy, the sustainable transition is no longer in the future—it's now.

The global economy in 2025-2026 will no longer be predictable. It will, however, be shaped by those who know how to navigate AI, trade protectionism, and climate pressure simultaneously.

Photo by Growtika on Unsplash