2025: A turning point between protectionism and sustainability.

Global economy at a crossroads: protectionism versus climate cooperation

The week of November 8-13, 2025, marks a turning point for the global economy. While Canada revokes taxes on luxury goods and reinforces its leadership in sustainability at COP30, signs of a possible protectionist escalation from the US are already shaping investment strategies worldwide. This article presents... future predictions Based on current trends and should not be interpreted as news.

What is happening now?

In early November, Canada eliminated the tax on luxury goods — a symbolic move that signals a shift in economic strategy for 2025[2]. Simultaneously, during COP30, the country reinforced its commitment to standardizing the global carbon market, supporting the Brazilian proposal alongside 12 other nations[2]. In China, the reopening of the market to Brazilian chicken boosts bilateral trade relations[2].

On the investment side, XP Investimentos' global equity portfolio reflects this tension: there is a reduction in exposure to technology (-2.3 percentage points) and an increase in defensive sectors such as finance (+4.7pp) and communications[1]. The Greater China region gained +7.6pp in weight in the portfolios, while Asia-Pacific lost -10.0pp[1].

Projected scenario: three fronts of transformation.

1. Trade protectionism and supply chain fragmentation

With Donald Trump's victory and promises of tariffs of up to 10% on goods from the European Union, an escalation in customs duties is expected in 2025[3]. Forecasts indicate that international trade will face increasing supply-side disruptions — climate, geopolitics and health — forcing companies to rethink their supply chains[3].

Expected impact: Brazilian exporting companies should diversify their destination markets and consider investments in relocating production. The technology and manufacturing sectors will face margin pressure.

2. Green transition as a competitive advantage

Climate cooperation during COP30 is not just rhetoric. The “What’s Next 21” report predicts that climate change will force stricter laws and that civil society will pressure leaders for concrete actions[4]. The pro-natural resources agenda will require solutions that integrate productivity, economic growth and reduced environmental impact[4].

Simultaneously, 2025 is expected to be the second or third warmest year on record, with global average temperatures 1.42 °C ± 0.12 °C above the pre-industrial average[7]. Global renewable energy capacity continues to expand, making the integration of climate data essential across the entire energy value chain[7].

Expected impact: Companies that fail to invest in sustainability will face increasing regulatory pressure. The renewable energy, energy efficiency, and circular economy sectors will see an acceleration of investments.

3. Luxury travel and changing consumer behavior

Counterintuitively, while the global economy faces risks, luxury travel is gaining momentum. In the second quarter of 2025, the share of travelers using luxury experience filters doubled compared to the previous quarter[5]. Latin America (LATAM) drove the largest growth in travel searches compared to the previous year, with 25%[5].

Expected impact: Polarization of consumption: while the middle class faces erosion in developed countries, high-income segments continue to consume premium experiences. The tourism, hospitality, and luxury experiences sectors in Brazil are expected to benefit.

Medium-term scenario (2026-2030)

International institutions predict economic growth in 2025, but with high risk factors[3]. Structurally, the world's urban population will increase by 72% by 2050, with cities becoming the main drivers of job creation[4]. New economic acronyms are emerging: MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) and SICK (Syria, India, Unified Koreas) are beginning to compete for influence with the BRICS[4].

Cybersecurity is becoming an essential investment, while artificial intelligence is accelerating digital transformation across all sectors[6]. Digital globalization continues, but in a more fragmented pattern — less “global village” and more “connected regional blocs”[4].

What changes for you?

If you invest: diversify geographically, increase exposure to renewable energy and defense technology. Pay close attention to sectors exposed to trade tariffs.

If you are an entrepreneur: accelerate the transition to sustainable models, invest in cybersecurity, and consider partnerships with emerging markets outside the US-Europe axis.

If you work in the energy, sustainability, technology, and luxury tourism sectors, you should expect more opportunities. Skills in climate data analysis and digital security are gaining exponential value.

Photo by Kelly Sikkema on Unsplash