Technology and climate: the battles that will define 2025

An analysis of trends and forecasts for the near future.

This article presents forecasts and analyses of future trends; it is not news about events that have already occurred.

The second week of November 2025 brought clear signs about the themes that will dominate the global agenda in the coming months: the intensification of the technological dispute between China and the United States, and the growing climate emergency. Both scenarios will directly impact Brazilian companies, governments, and consumers.

The technological race has already begun.

The latest data reveals an inescapable reality: China has drastically reduced the gap with the US in technological innovation.. In artificial intelligence, the Asian country dominates 55% of the radical innovations recorded among China, the US, and the European Union, especially in computer vision, intelligent surveillance, and autonomous systems. Meanwhile, Europe is losing ground despite its strong scientific base.

What to expect in the next 12 months

The trend suggests that this dispute will intensify on three main fronts:

Artificial intelligence: China will continue to expand its presence in open models and AI chips, while the US will try to maintain its leadership through giants like Google, Nvidia, and OpenAI. For Brazilian companies, this means pressure for accelerated AI adoption or the risk of competitive obsolescence.

Semiconductors: China has resumed exports of metals and chips after easing restrictions on critical materials. This move is reshaping global production chains and reducing dependence on Western suppliers. Sectors such as automotive and electronics in Brazil will feel this change.

Quantum Computing: While the US leads in hardware, China is advancing in quantum sensors applied to defense and forecasting. This technology is still far from the mass market, but it represents the next technological battleground.

The climate doesn't wait for innovation.

While technology advances, the planet's thermometer continues to rise. Global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels will reach a record 38.1 billion tons in 2025, an increase of 1.1%. Compared to the previous year, the result, presented at COP30 in Belém, practically makes the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C unfeasible.

Numbers that are worrying

The Global Carbon Budget 2025 report projects increased emissions in the US (+1.9%), India (+1.4%), China (+0.4%), and the European Union (+0.4%). Only Japan registers a decrease of 2.2%. Despite this, there are positive signs: 35 countries responsible for a quarter of global emissions managed to reduce their emissions in the last decade while maintaining economic growth.

China, the world's largest emitter, is massively expanding renewable energy (solar and wind) and reducing emissions from private transportation with the expansion of electric vehicles. Experts expect the country to begin flattening its emissions curve in the coming years.

What changes for Brazil

These two trends — the technological race and climate pressure — converge to create specific opportunities and risks for the country:

Opportunities: Brazil can position itself as a supplier of critical raw materials for the global energy transition (lithium, copper) and as a hub for innovation in green technologies. The strategic partnership that China has been strengthening with the country opens doors for investments in AI and digital infrastructure.

Risks: Traditional sectors will face pressure to decarbonize. The construction industry, for example, will need to adapt to new environmental regulations. Companies that fail to keep up with technological transformation will fall behind in global competitiveness.

Forecasts for the next 12 months

Based on current trends, it is expected that:

Technology: The China-US dispute intensifies with potential trade restrictions and a race for AI talent. Europe will try to recover ground with massive investments in innovation. For Brazil, there will be greater pressure for the adoption of digital technologies in companies of all sizes.

Climate: Targets of 1.5°C will become increasingly symbolic. The real focus will be on damage mitigation and adaptation. Renewable energies will continue to grow, but not at the pace needed to reverse warming. Extreme weather events will intensify.

Geopolitics: Technology will be a bargaining chip in negotiations between major powers. Brazil will need to navigate carefully between the US, China, and Europe to maximize benefits without compromising technological sovereignty.

Photo by Luca Bravo on Unsplash