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Ibovespa surpasses 157,000 points and registers its 15th consecutive gain.
Brazil's main stock market index, the Ibovespa, maintained its positive pace this week, closing at 157,739 points last Friday (14), accumulating a historic sequence of 15 consecutive increases — the longest since 1994. During trading, the index even surpassed 158,000 points for the first time, reflecting investor optimism about the slowdown in inflation in Brazil and prospects of a cut in the basic interest rate, the Selic.
Economic context and market impact
Official inflation registered an increase of only 0.09% in October, the lowest level for the month since 1998, and the IPCA accumulated 4.68% in the 12 months to October, below the ceiling of the target set by the Central Bank (BC). These numbers reinforce the expectation that the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) will maintain the Selic rate at 15% per year for a prolonged period, but with the possibility of future cuts, which favors risk assets such as stocks.
Furthermore, the dollar closed below R$ 5.30, at R$ 5.2967, reflecting greater confidence in the Brazilian economy given the scenario of controlled inflation and progress on the economic agenda, such as the drop in the unemployment rate in some states.
Outlook for the remainder of 2025
The financial market projects that the Selic rate should end 2025 at 15%, with expectations of a drop to 12.25% in 2026, following the slowdown in inflation. The General Price Index-10 (IGP-10) also signals stability, with a slight increase of 0.18% in November, driven mainly by prices in the manufacturing industry.
This environment has fostered risk appetite among investors, with the Ibovespa accumulating a gain of 2.39% in the week and 24.3% in the year, driven by expectations of future interest rate cuts and improvements in domestic economic indicators.
Photo by Vadim Shevyrin on Unsplash
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