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Ibovespa registers its 15th consecutive rise and hits historic records.
Brazil's main stock market index, Ibovespa, maintained its upward trend and closed at 157,748.60 points on Tuesday (11), accumulating its 15th consecutive rise, the longest series since 1994. During trading, the index surpassed 158,000 points for the first time, reaching a peak of 158,467.21 points, driven by investor optimism about the possibility of interest rate cuts in the country.
Economic context
The robust performance of the Ibovespa reflects the positive reaction of the financial market to the slowdown in inflation in Brazil. The Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for October rose by only 0.09%, the lowest for the month since 1998, accumulating 4.68% in the last 12 months. This milder inflation strengthens expectations of a gradual reduction in the basic interest rate (Selic), currently at 15%, by the Central Bank.
In the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), recently released, the Central Bank demonstrated greater conviction that maintaining the Selic rate at a high level for a prolonged period could lead to inflation reaching the 3% target. Furthermore, the minutes indicated an improvement in core inflation, especially in services inflation, reinforcing the prospect of lower inflationary pressure.
Impacts for investors and the economy
The rise in the Ibovespa and the fall in the dollar — which closed below R$ 5.30 — indicate a greater appetite for risk in the Brazilian market, favoring the investment environment. However, experts warn that, despite the improvement, inflation is still above the target ceiling and the economy is expected to slow its growth rate, with revised GDP projections of 2.16% in 2025 and 1.78% for 2026.
Given the current scenario, the expectation is that the Central Bank will maintain high interest rates for some time, while monitoring economic data to adjust monetary policy as needed. For investors, this environment presents opportunities, but also demands caution in the face of global volatility and local challenges.
Photo by Danylo Harmatiy on Unsplash
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