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Ibovespa closes week higher with a series of record highs.
The main index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange, the Ibovespa, closed last Friday (14) at 157,739 points, registering an increase of 0.37% on the day and accumulating a gain of 2.39% throughout the week. This performance reinforces an optimistic movement of investors in the face of the prospect of cuts in the basic interest rate in Brazil, after recent data showed a slowdown in inflation.
Economic context and inflation
Inflation in October slowed to 0.09%, the lowest result for the month since 1998, with the IPCA accumulating an increase of 4.68% in the last 12 months up to October. This more benign inflation dynamic, especially in service prices, has fueled expectations that the Central Bank will maintain the Selic rate at 15% for an extended period and may even begin cuts in the near future.
The General Price Index-10 (IGP-10) also registered a moderate increase of 0.18% in November, in line with market forecasts, with particular emphasis on the acceleration in prices in the manufacturing industry, which accounts for 60% of the index.
Market impacts and projections
The continued rise of the Ibovespa, which has now accumulated 15 consecutive sessions of gains, the longest streak since 1994, demonstrates investors' appetite for risk. The dollar, in turn, closed Friday quoted at R$ 5.2967, practically stable, reflecting a scenario of less exchange rate pressure.
According to analysts, maintaining the Selic rate at a high level helps to contain inflation, but should lead to an economic slowdown. Government projections indicate a revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2025 of 2.01%, below the previous expectation of 2.31%, while the financial market maintains an estimate close to 2.16%.
Perspectives for the near future
The financial market expects the Selic rate to begin declining in 2026, with a projected drop to 12.25%, which should further boost risk assets such as stocks. The favorable external environment and the flow of foreign capital, especially from the United States, have reinforced the appreciation of the Brazilian stock market.
Photo by Vadim Shevyrin on Unsplash
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