Ibovespa hits 15th consecutive gain and surpasses 158,000.

Brazilian stock market hits new record high amid optimism about interest rates.

The Ibovespa closed higher on Tuesday (November 11), marking its 15th consecutive winning streak — the longest since 1994. The main index of the Brazilian stock exchange rose 1.60%, to 157,748.60 points, surpassing the 156,000, 157,000 and 158,000 point marks for the first time in history, reaching a peak of 158,467.21 points at the best moment of the day.[1]

What moved the market?

The performance reflects investor optimism about the possibility of interest rate cuts in Brazil. October inflation slowed to 0.09% — the lowest monthly level since 1998 — and accumulates 4.68% over 12 months, signaling that the Central Bank may begin cutting the Selic rate soon.[1]

The dollar also traded lower, closing below R$ 5.30, reflecting greater confidence in the domestic scenario. Analysts highlight that the expectation of interest rate cuts makes risk assets, such as stocks and shares, more competitive compared to fixed income investments.[5]

Central Bank Signals

In the minutes of the Copom meeting the previous week, when it maintained the Selic rate at 15%, the BC reinforced its conviction that a prolonged maintenance of the current rate will lead inflation to the target of 3%. The committee also removed the passage that stated that core inflation remained above the value compatible with the target, signaling greater confidence in inflation control.[1]

The financial market is already pricing in interest rate cuts for the coming months. Analysts estimate that the Selic rate will end 2025 at 15% per year, with expectations of falling to 12.25% by the end of 2026.[4]

Broader context: strong employment puts pressure on inflation.

Despite the optimism, the Brazilian economy faces a paradox. The labor market is hitting record highs, with the unemployment rate falling in several states in the third quarter of 2025.[2] This scenario, however, puts pressure on prices, especially services, making the balance between growth and inflation control delicate.[3]

Projections for GDP growth have been reduced: 2.16% for 2025 and 1.78% for 2026, reflecting the cost of the inflationary adjustment that the country is facing.[4]

Impact for investors

The Ibovespa's record-breaking streak — the longest since May-June 1994 — demonstrates a renewed appetite for risk among investors. The accumulated appreciation of the stock market this year reaches 24.3%, also driven by a more favorable external scenario and good corporate results.[5]

However, the accumulated inflation over 12 months (5.17%) still remains above the tolerance ceiling of the target (4.5%), keeping the Central Bank's vigilance at maximum level.[4]

Photo by ELISA KERSCHBAUMER on Unsplash