Global trends: what to expect in the coming years

Global trends: what to expect in the coming years

This article presents an analysis of trends and future forecasts based on recent news and expert reports. It is not a factual report, but a projection about the direction of the economy, technology, and climate in the coming years.

Economy in transition and new agreements

Global economies are in a period of transition, with signs of recovery in Europe, an uneven recovery in China, and a continuation of the interest rate cutting cycle in the US.¹. The suspension of new tariffs between the US and China, in addition to the resumption of exports of rare earths and semiconductors, signals a new phase of commercial cooperation, with direct impacts on production chains and financial markets.¹.

Countries like India are planning to expand incentives for domestic production of rare earth magnets, seeking to reduce external dependence and strengthen their strategic position.¹. In Brazil, the government could propose sectoral agreements with the US, aiming to increase bilateral trade to US$200 billion by 2030.¹.

Technology: convergence and innovation

The World Economic Forum report points to four major technological trends: digital security, biotechnologies, industrial sustainability, and energy and materials integration.³. The convergence of AI, biotechnology, and new materials is expected to accelerate innovations in healthcare, energy, and industry, with profound impacts on everyday life.

Advances in nuclear technologies, such as modular reactors, promise to reduce costs and increase energy efficiency, while China invests heavily in AI and chips, challenging US technological dominance.².

Climate: collective action and challenges

COP30 in Belém marks a crucial moment for the global climate agenda. The UN report shows that climate action by cities, businesses, and civil society is consolidating, with progress in renewable energy, forests, and agriculture.⁵. However, challenges persist: investments in electricity grids are still low, deforestation has worsened, and emissions from the construction sector have increased.⁵.

It is expected that, in the coming years, the integration between public policy and the private sector will accelerate the energy transition and expand the benefits of climate action to billions of people.⁵.

Impacts and opportunities for Brazil

• Strengthening trade partnerships with China and the US.
• Expansion of incentives for strategic sectors, such as rare earths and technology.
• Integrating climate policies with economic development
• Challenges for the construction industry, with pressure for innovation and sustainability.

Photo by Basma Alghali on Unsplash