Financial market reacts to Brazil-US negotiations.

Brazilian stock market remains high, while the dollar fluctuates in response to the international scenario.

The Ibovespa, the main index of the Brazilian stock exchange, showed a slight drop of 0.07% in the last trading session, quoted at 157,632 points, but maintains an upward trend in the short and medium term. Meanwhile, the dollar futures contract traded higher by 0.36%, quoted at R$ 5.31, reflecting the volatility in the face of the external and internal scenario.

Tariff negotiations between Brazil and the United States

The recent meeting between Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, held on the sidelines of the G7 meeting in Niagara Falls, brought optimism to the market. The talks focused on reducing US tariffs on Brazilian products, which reach 40%, with expectations of progress that could benefit bilateral trade.

Corporate results and economic indicators

Among Brazilian companies, Casas Bahia released its third-quarter 2025 results showing revenue growth and improved EBITDA, despite a larger-than-expected net loss due to high financial expenses. Banco do Brasil, on the other hand, presented results below expectations, with lower pre-tax profits, affected by higher provisions and a deterioration in credit quality, especially in the rural segment.

In the retail sector, the Monthly Trade Survey (PMC) for September indicated an increase of 21% year-on-year, with growth in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and perfumes, while some regions of the country showed a drop in sales.

Outlook for interest rates and investments

The Brazilian financial market is closely watching the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), which should indicate the timing for a possible reduction in the Selic rate. If the official inflation rate for October comes in below expectations, there is room for interest rate cuts as early as January 2026, which could stimulate a shift in investments to the stock market, which has accumulated a gain of 29.08% in 2025, the highest since 2019.

Sovereign Brazil Plan expands support for businesses.

The federal government has expanded access for companies to the Sovereign Brazil Plan, a program that offers financial support to sectors impacted by US tariffs. The measure aims to strengthen the competitiveness of Brazilian companies in the international market and mitigate the negative effects of trade disputes.

Impacts and challenges

Progress in trade negotiations with the US and the prospect of lower interest rates could boost economic growth and investor confidence. However, challenges such as credit quality in the banking sector and the uneven recovery of retail sales indicate that the outlook still calls for caution.

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