Brazilian stock market hits new record in 2025

The Brazilian stock market hit a new record this week, with the Ibovespa surpassing 155,000 points and accumulating a gain of 29,08% by 2025, the largest annual increase since 2019.¹. The index closed Monday's session (10) at 155,257 points, up 0.77%, driven by shares of oil companies, mining companies and banks.¹.

Sector momentum and expectations

The positive performance of the stock market is supported by internal and external factors, including expectations of a drop in the Selic rate and an improvement in the exchange rate scenario. The commercial dollar fell 0.55% in the same session, closing at R$ 5.307, after accumulating a drop of 14.12% in the year.¹.

Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes from the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meeting and the official inflation data for October, which may indicate whether the Central Bank will begin reducing interest rates as early as January 2026, instead of March.¹.

Highlighting stocks and sectors

Among the stocks that stood out the most are those of Cogna, Movida, and Moura Dubeux, with valuations exceeding 190% in 2025.⁵. The real estate development sector leads the ranking in terms of appreciation, followed by educational services, reflecting optimism about private education and the expansion of digital learning.⁵.

Impact on retail and consumption

Despite the euphoria in the financial market, consumption still faces challenges. The tertiary sector recorded its eighth consecutive increase, but experts point to a slowdown in consumption in Brazil, impacting retail.². Still, events like Black November should boost sales at stores such as Casas Bahia, Mercado Livre, and RaiaDrogasil.².

Politics and business

In the international arena, the Brazilian government is negotiating the reversal of tariffs imposed by the United States, in a meeting between Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira and US Secretary of State Marco Rubi.³. Domestically, the government expanded companies' access to the Sovereign Brazil Plan, facilitating support for sectors affected by external tariffs.⁸.

Photo by Jacky Watt on Unsplash