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Prediction: How China, the US, and technology are shaping the near future.
Important notice: This article presents forecasts and trend analyses. It is not news about already confirmed events, but projections based on recent events and expert studies.
The current situation (last 72 hours)
The week of November 10, 2025, marks a geopolitical turning point. The US Senate ended the shutdown that had paralyzed the government, while China accelerated its offensive in artificial intelligence and redefined global supply chains. Beijing resumed exports of metals and chips, signaling trade easing and an interest in stabilizing world trade.[2]
Meanwhile, tensions are growing between Venezuela and the United States during a summit in Colombia, with Maduro asking for support from neighboring countries against alleged American militarization. Trump, in turn, promises aid of US$ 2,000 and expands his political focus on South America.[2]
Artificial intelligence: the new battlefield
The technological dispute between China and the US is no longer futuristic—it's a reality. Chinese advances in artificial intelligence are challenging US technological dominance, with investments in chips, cloud computing, and open models.[2] This competition will redefine not only technology markets but the entire global production chain.
What to expect: Over the next 12 to 24 months, Western companies will face increasing pressure to diversify their semiconductor suppliers. Dependence on Taiwan and China will create strategic vulnerabilities that governments will attempt to mitigate with subsidies for domestic production. Investments in chip factories in the US and Europe are expected to accelerate, but at significantly higher costs.
Trade protectionism and tariffs: the new normal
Donald Trump has promised a potential tariff of 10% on all goods from the European Union exported to the US.[3] This measure signals an escalation in protectionism that goes beyond political rhetoric.
Projection for 2025-2026: A progressive tariff war is expected, primarily affecting the manufacturing, agriculture, and technology sectors. The European Union, already weakened along the Franco-German axis, will suffer direct economic impacts. IMF economists warn that the globe has entered a world dominated by supply-side disruptions—from climate to geopolitics.[3]
Brazil and other Latin American countries, historically dependent on exports, will face pressure to reorient their trade. Trump's strategy of consolidating influence over South American countries may create specific opportunities, but at a high political cost.
China strengthens strategic ties: Brazil and the EU in its sights.
Beijing expands global influence in trade and technology, strengthening strategic partnerships with Brazil and the European Union.[2] China expands its influence with visa waivers and strategic trade agreements, consolidating its position as a global scientific power.[1]
Future scenario: Over the next two years, China is expected to intensify infrastructure investments in Latin America and increase its participation in critical sectors (energy, mining, technology). Brazil, rich in raw materials essential for batteries and chips, will be a priority target. Simultaneously, the EU will seek to reduce its dependence on China, creating a tripolar competitive dynamic (US, China, EU) that will directly affect Brazilian trade policies.
Consumption, sustainability and well-being: the human side
As geopolitics intensifies, global consumers are seeking a paradigm shift. According to analyses by Euromonitor International, 52% of consumers surveyed believe they will be healthier in the next five years.[4] The “Eco Logical” trend shows that sustainability remains essential for purchasing decisions, with consumers evaluating products based on personal values and demonstrable benefits.[4]
Impact forecast: Brands that ignore sustainability and well-being will face market rejection. At the same time, wearable AI technology and social robots will gain ground, connecting humans and machines on a deep emotional level.[4] This will create opportunities in personalized health, fitness and wellness, but will also raise ethical questions about privacy and technological dependence.
Risks and uncertainties: what could go wrong?
Economists warn that the likelihood of emerging threats and risks is very high. An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East could cause further disruption and lead to higher energy prices.[3] In addition, extreme weather events will continue to impact global supply chains.
Risk scenarios: Direct geopolitical conflict between nuclear powers; collapse of critical supply chains; energy crisis in Europe; political instability in key countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia).
What changes for you?
Investors should diversify portfolios to reduce exposure to tariffs and geopolitical volatility. Technology professionals will see increasing demand, especially in cybersecurity and AI. Consumers will see higher prices for imported goods, but a greater supply of sustainable and personalized products. Brazilian companies need to prepare for a more competitive and regulated environment, with simultaneous pressure from the US, China, and the EU.
Photo by Sincerely Media on Unsplash
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