Stock market growth and foreign trade boost business.

Brazilian stock market hits record high amid uncertainty.

In recent days, the Brazilian stock market has accumulated a 29% appreciation in reais, which represents almost 50% in dollars, marking the longest upward trend since 1997. Despite this performance, local experts and investors are skeptical, pointing out that the rise does not reflect the country's economic fundamentals, which faces high interest rates and political instability. Managers disagree about the future: while some see potential for further gains, others, such as UBS, recommend focusing on technology in the US and Asia, at the expense of Brazilian commodities. The current appreciation is interpreted as a short-term rally, susceptible to rapid declines if external flows change[1][3].

Brazilian foreign trade maintains a positive pace.

Up to the first week of November 2025, Brazilian trade flow reached US$540.8 billion, with a trade surplus of US$1.811 billion recorded in the week. Exports totaled US$7.8 billion, while imports stood at US$5.9 billion. Compared to the same period of the previous year, there was a growth of 7.11% in trade flow. Sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing showed significant growth in exports, with increases of 42.2% and 10.7%, respectively. On the other hand, the extractive industry registered a decrease of 22.7% in exports. On the import side, agriculture fell by 5.2%, while extractive and manufacturing industries grew by 11.5% and 8.0%, respectively [2].

Agribusiness sector achieves record exports.

Brazil recorded a record in exports of the soybean complex, despite China reducing its need for purchases from the US. Chinese demand, the main destination for Brazilian soybeans, shows signs of slowing down, which impacts the international market. This situation generates cautious expectations for the next deals in the national market, with special attention to the USDA report scheduled for November 14, which may influence prices and traded volumes[9].

Impacts and perspectives

• The stock market's appreciation may attract investors in the short term, but a lack of confidence in Brazilian economic fundamentals could generate volatility.
• The growth in trade flows indicates the resilience of foreign trade, especially in the agricultural and industrial sectors.
• Brazilian agribusiness maintains its strategic importance, but is subject to fluctuations in global demand, especially from China.

Photo by Anne Nygård on Unsplash