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Future Forecast: Global Economic Landscape in Transformation
This article presents forward-looking forecasts and analyses, not confirmed news. Based on trends observed during the week of November 5-10, 2025, experts point to scenarios that may solidify in the coming months.
Correction of 10-15% in the markets: when might it arrive?
Morgan Stanley analysts issued a warning about a possible correction in global equity markets between 10% and 15%. This warning reflects persistent inflationary pressures and expectations of higher interest rates maintained by the US Federal Reserve. XP's Global Equity portfolio registered a performance of +0.9% in October, falling 143 basis points below the iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (+2.3%), signaling increasing volatility.[1][4]
The expectation is that this correction will occur in the coming quarters, as markets absorb weaker economic data and revisions to corporate profit estimates for 2026.
Sectoral repositioning: technology loses ground.
Investment strategies already reflect structural changes. The XP portfolio reduced exposure to technology (-2.3 percentage points) and discretionary consumption, while increasing positions in communications and the financial sector (+4.7 pp). This reallocation suggests that investors anticipate underperformance from big tech companies in 2026.[1]
The expected trend is an intensification of this sectoral rotation, with flows migrating to defensive companies and sectors less sensitive to high interest rates.
China vs. USA: Technological dispute deepens.
China has accelerated investments in artificial intelligence, chips, and cloud technology, seeking to reduce its dependence on the West. At the same time, it has resumed exports of critical metals and semiconductors, signaling a loosening of trade relations.[3]
Prediction: This rivalry is expected to intensify pressure on global supply chains by 2026, with potential new trade restrictions and technological fragmentation among economic blocs.
Asia as a financial epicenter: 80% institutions invest in AI.
During the Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit in Hong Kong, it became clear that the digital revolution in finance is already a reality. According to a Deloitte report, 80% of the major Asian financial institutions plan to increase investments in AI by 2026.[4]
Expectation: The region should consolidate its position as a fintech innovation hub, attracting global capital and redefining international financial competitiveness.
American political instability: economic impacts in 2026
The end of the shutdown in the US on November 10 eased immediate tensions, but revealed deep political impasses. Tensions with Venezuela and promises of economic aid in South America indicate ongoing geopolitical changes.[3]
Future scenario: American political volatility is expected to continue affecting markets, with potential effects on fiscal, regulatory, and trade policy throughout 2026.
What changes for you?
Investors: Prepare for increased volatility and consider portfolio rebalancing, reducing exposure to technology and increasing defensive positions.
Companies: Track the relocation of production chains and regulatory pressures in AI, especially in the technology and finance sectors.
Job market: The financial and technology sectors should remain strong, but with more rigorous selection of talent in AI and data analytics.
Photo by Bumgeun Nick Suh on Unsplash
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