Ibovespa registers its 15th consecutive rise and hits a new record.

Ibovespa reaches 157,748 points and maintains market optimism.

The main index of the Brazilian stock exchange, the Ibovespa, closed up 1,60% this Tuesday (11), at 157,748.60 points, reaching its 15th consecutive rise, the longest sequence since 1994. During the trading session, the index even surpassed the 158,000 point mark for the first time in history, reflecting investor optimism regarding the possibility of a cut in the basic interest rate after lower-than-expected inflation data.

Economic context and repercussions

October inflation slowed to 0.09%, the lowest level for the month since 1998, and the accumulated increase over 12 months stood at 4.68%. These figures reinforce market expectations that the Central Bank may reduce the Selic rate, currently at 15%, considering that inflation is showing a more benign dynamic, especially in services inflation. The minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) recently released indicated greater conviction that maintaining the Selic rate at its current level for a prolonged period may be sufficient to bring inflation to the target of 3%[1].

Impacts for investors and the financial market

The Ibovespa's performance is driven by this scenario, which creates a favorable environment for risk assets. The US dollar closed below R$ 5.30, quoted at R$ 5.2967, following the positive movement of the stock market and indicating greater confidence in the domestic market. The index's appreciation was also influenced by corporate results both in Brazil and abroad, which reinforce the prospect of economic recovery[1][2].

Economic outlook

Despite the momentary optimism, the government projects a greater slowdown in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2025, with growth revised to around 2.0%, lower than previous forecasts. Inflation, although on a decelerating trajectory, remains above the target ceiling, requiring caution from the Central Bank in conducting monetary policy. The financial market, in turn, estimates that the Selic rate should begin to fall next year, reaching 12.25% in 2026, which could support the continued good performance of the stock market, provided that inflation remains under control[4][5].

Photo by Vadim Shevyrin on Unsplash