2025: Economy, climate, and geopolitics at a crossroads.

Predictions for the future based on current trends.

This is an analysis and forecast article, not a news report. It uses recent events and global trends to project future scenarios.

What is happening now?

The week of November 5-8, 2025, revealed dynamics that define the global landscape. China reinforces its technological self-sufficiency in chips and innovation, reducing its dependence on the West[1]. In the US, the Trump administration signals tariffs of up to 10% on exports from the European Union, intensifying protectionism[4]. At COP30, Brazil, Canada, and 12 other countries advance in the standardization of the global carbon market[2].

Economy: Growth with high risks

International institutions predict economic growth in 2025, but with significant risk factors[4]. The escalating US tariffs threaten the European recovery, while the transition to lower interest rates may stimulate investment[4]. The green bond market is expected to reach new records, especially in Latin America[3].

Expected scenario: Emerging economies such as Brazil, Mexico, and Southeast Asian countries tend to benefit from the diversion of investment and trade, while Europe faces structural pressure. Currency volatility and fiscal uncertainty will persist until 2026.

Climate: Accelerated but insufficient energy transition

Renewable energies (solar, wind, green hydrogen) will scale up by 2025, with a focus on projects in isolated communities in Brazil[3]. The global average temperature from January to August 2025 was 1.42°C ± 0.12°C above the pre-industrial average[8].

Expected scenario: 2025 will be the second or third warmest year on record[8]. Pressure for climate action will increase, but geopolitical conflicts may slow the transition. Investments in cybersecurity to protect critical energy infrastructure will be essential[4].

Geopolitics: Multipolarity and fragmentation

China consolidates its role as a scientific and commercial power, expanding influence through visa exemptions and strategic agreements[1]. Mexico and France strengthen partnerships, while Canada leads in sustainability at COP30[2]. Political instability in the US exposes structural impasses[1].

Expected scenario: The Franco-German axis weakens as new poles emerge (China, MINT: Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey)[5]. Conflicts in the Middle East may raise energy prices and destabilize supply chains[4]. Connected civil society will push for stricter ESG and data protection regulations[5].

Technology and Innovation: AI and blockchain as key tools.

Artificial intelligence and blockchain optimize supply chains, monitor resources and track emissions[3]. Chinese self-sufficiency in chips reduces Western dependence[1].

Expected scenario: Investments in AI will accelerate, but fragmented regulations between the US, EU, and China will create two or three parallel technological ecosystems by 2027. Cybersecurity will be a top priority for governments and businesses.

What changes for you?

If you invest: diversify into emerging markets and green bonds. If you work in energy or logistics: prepare for accelerated transitions. If you consume: energy prices may fluctuate, but sustainable products will gain scale and accessibility.

Photo by Kelly Sikkema on Unsplash