Brazil and the USA: Tariffs, Stock Market, and Startups on the Rise

Brazil and the USA: Tariffs, Stock Market, and Startups on the Rise

Last Thursday (13), the Brazilian economic scenario was marked by advances in business, technology and startups, with emphasis on the meeting between Chancellor Mauro Vieira and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington. The meeting focused mainly on negotiating the tariffs imposed by the US on Brazil, which reached 40% in some sectors, generating a direct impact on exports and investments.

Impact of Tariffs and Government Response

The Brazilian government has expanded access to the Sovereign Brazil Plan, a program to support companies affected by US tariffs. The new decree reduced the minimum export impact required to access financing from 5% to 1%, facilitating support for more companies. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad stated that the measure aims to "increase the resilience of companies in the face of external shocks.".

According to data from the Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services, the automotive sector was one of the hardest hit, with a 1.51% drop in vehicle production in September. However, vehicle sales registered a 7.91% increase in the same period, indicating that the domestic market is still responding positively, even in the face of external pressures.

Stocks and Variable Income on the Rise

The Ibovespa, the main index of the B3 (Brazilian Stock Exchange), closed the day up 0.77%, surpassing 155,000 points. The index has accumulated a gain of 29.08% in 2025, the largest since 2019. Shares of oil companies, mining companies, and banks led the gains, but the highlight was the startup and education sectors, with companies like Cogna (COGN3) registering a gain of more than 240% this year.

According to a survey by Elos Ayta, 14 stocks in the Ibovespa and Small Caps indexes doubled in value by 2025, with the real estate development sector standing out the most, with seven companies in the ranking. The education sector also performed strongly, reflecting optimism about private education and the expansion of digital learning.

Technology and Startups: Optimism and Challenges

In the field of technology, the Brazilian government has intensified dialogue on the regulation of the crypto economy, with the Central Bank announcing new guidelines for the sector. Companies such as Bradesco and Itaú have already taken legal action to block proposals considered restrictive, arguing that they could limit innovation and the growth of the startup ecosystem.

Brazilian startups continue to attract investment, especially in areas such as fintech, edtech, and healthtech. The education sector, in particular, has benefited from financial restructuring and digital expansion initiatives, boosting stock values and investor confidence.

Impacts and Perspectives

Progress in trade negotiations, stock market performance, and the growth of the startup ecosystem indicate a positive outlook for Brazil, but also reveal challenges. Dependence on external markets, the need for continuous innovation, and adequate regulation are critical points for the sector's future.

For the coming months, the expectation is that the Central Bank will begin cutting the Selic rate, which could further stimulate the migration of investments to the stock market and the startup sector. The official inflation figures for October will be released soon, and investors are eagerly waiting to see if the scenario favors a reduction in interest rates.

Photo by Agustin Diaz Gargiulo on Unsplash