Stock market hits record high and dollar falls amid trading.

Brazilian markets are rising as the government negotiates tariffs.

The Ibovespa closed this Thursday (13) with a slight drop of 0.07%, to 157,633 points, but maintains an upward trajectory throughout the year. The commercial dollar closed higher by 0.10%, quoted at R$ 5.2975, reflecting volatility in the exchange market.

Despite the occasional pullback, the Brazilian stock market has accumulated a gain of 29,08% by 2025 — the largest annual increase since 2019 — and hit a record high for the 11th consecutive time in recent sessions, driven by shares of oil companies, mining companies, and banks.

Diplomatic negotiations take center stage.

The meeting between Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Niagara Falls, on the sidelines of the G7 summit, brought tariff negotiations between Brazil and the United States into focus. Market expectations are that the Brazilian government will be able to reverse the 40% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

In response, the federal government expanded companies' access to the Sovereign Brazil Plan, an initiative aimed at supporting sectors affected by US tariffs, by reducing export impact requirements to facilitate access to the program.

Retail shows mixed signals in September.

The Monthly Retail Trade Survey (PMC) released by IBGE this Thursday revealed a heterogeneous performance of Brazilian retail in September. The sector registered an advance of 0.31% compared to the previous month and growth of 21% compared to the previous year, according to market projections.

Regionally, 15 of the 27 federative units registered a decrease, with Maranhão (-2.2%) and Roraima (-2.0%) standing out. Among the increases, Tocantins (3.2%) and Amapá (2.9%) led the way. Pharmaceutical and perfumery articles rose 1.3%, signaling resilience in specific segments.

Corporate earnings put pressure on banks.

Banco do Brasil reported weak results in the third quarter of 2025, with earnings before tax (EBT) below expectations. Increased provisions, pressured by the postponement of renegotiations in the rural segment, impacted the figures. The deterioration in asset quality—especially in rural credit—led the bank to revise its profit guidance downwards.

Casas Bahia, in turn, showed revenue growth and improved EBITDA in the third quarter, with progress across all sales channels (marketplace, physical stores, and direct sales). However, the net loss exceeded expectations due to higher financial expenses.

The economic agenda remains packed.

Investors are closely monitoring domestic economic indicators and the political environment, which influence interest rate projections. The release of the minutes from the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meeting and official inflation data remain on the market's radar, with the potential to anticipate cuts in the Selic rate.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve will release its balance sheet, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index (CPI), indicators that also have repercussions in Brazilian markets.

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