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A prediction of the future based on current trends.
This article presents projections and analyses about the future, not accounts of events that have already occurred. The trends identified in the last 72 hours point to structural transformations in the global economy, geopolitics, and technology that are expected to intensify in the coming months.
The current scenario: signs from the last few days.
On Thursday (November 13), the UN presented alarming data at COP30 in Belém: global CO2 emissions will reach a record high. 38.1 billion tons in 2025, with an increase of 1.1% compared to 2024. Simultaneously, B3 released its annual ETF report showing that Brazil has consolidated itself as a global financial hub, and economic analyses point to a 2025 marked by trade tensions and technological opportunities.
These signs converge on a scenario that will redefine the coming decades.
Forecasts for the next 12 months
1. Trade fragmentation and increasing protectionism
Donald Trump's victory in the American elections signaled a change of course: tariffs of up to 10% on European exports to the US have already been promised. This protectionist stance is expected to intensify in 2025, creating rival trading blocs.
Expected impact: Brazilian companies that depend on global supply chains will face pressure to relocate operations or seek regional partnerships. The European Union is likely to retaliate, creating cycles of escalating tariffs.
2. China consolidates technological leadership while reshaping supply chains.
Beijing is expanding its influence in artificial intelligence, resuming exports of chips and critical metals. The ETF Connect Brazil-China program, launched in May 2025, allows Brazilian investors direct access to Chinese technology companies such as Alibaba and Tencent.
Forecast: China is expected to capture a larger share of the global AI market in the next 18 months, challenging American hegemony. Investments in semiconductors and cloud computing are accelerating.
3. Climate as an irreversible economic factor
With the 1.5°C target virtually unattainable according to the Global Carbon Budget 2025, climate adaptation becomes an economic priority. Global energy demand for cooling jumped 4% in 2024 — an anomaly that is expected to persist.
Opportunities: Renewable energy, energy efficiency technologies, and climate adaptation solutions have become sectors of accelerated growth. Countries that do not invest will face increasing costs.
4. Sophistication of the investment market in Brazil
With over 850,000 investors, the Brazilian ETF market is maturing. The launch of the first hybrid ETF (GOAT11) and niche products (private credit, micro caps) indicate that local investors are seeking more complex strategies.
Trend: Democratization of access to international assets and increased volatility in emerging markets as global capital flows between regions.
5. Geopolitical tensions in South America
Conflicts between Venezuela and the US, mediated by Colombia, suggest that the region will be a battleground for influence. Trump has signaled economic aid to consolidate a South American presence.
Risk: Political instability can affect investments and trade flows. Brazil must position itself strategically between rival powers.
Possible scenarios up to December 2025
Optimistic scenario: Regional trade agreements reduce tensions; investments in AI and renewables generate jobs; climate does not deteriorate more than expected.
Realistic scenario: Protectionism is advancing moderately; Chinese technology is gaining market share; climate adaptation is consuming public resources; inequality is increasing.
Pessimistic scenario: Large-scale trade war; recession in developed economies; extreme weather events causing billions in losses; deepening geopolitical fragmentation.
What changes for you?
If you're an investor, diversify into climate and technology assets. If you work in export, prepare for tariffs and relocation. If you live in climate-vulnerable regions, demand adaptation policies. The next decade will be defined by the decisions made in the next 12 months.
Photo by Logan Voss on Unsplash
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