Brazilian stock market and dollar fluctuate amid US-Brazil negotiations.

Brazilian stock market and dollar fluctuate amid US-Brazil negotiations.

The Ibovespa closed with a slight drop of 0.07% this Thursday (13), quoted at 157,632 points, after 14 consecutive increases that took the index to new records. The commercial dollar rose 0.10%, closing at R$ 5.2975, while the future dollar operated higher by 0.36%, quoted at R$ 5.31.

Indicators and external environment

Investors are closely monitoring the international scenario, especially after the end of the US government shutdown and the meeting between Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Niagara Falls. The meeting discussed the progress of tariff negotiations, with expectations of a reversal of the 40% tariffs imposed by the US government on Brazil.

In addition, the Federal Reserve will release its balance sheet, while the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) will be announced this Friday, influencing expectations for US interest rates.

Domestic indicators

In Brazil, IBGE released retail sales data for September, showing growth of 21% year-on-year and a 0.31% month-on-month increase. Anfavea also presented production and sales figures for vehicles in October, which show a recovery in the sector.

Companies such as Casas Bahia and Hidrovias do Brasil reported positive results, with revenue growth and operational improvements, while Banco do Brasil presented lower-than-expected profits due to increased provisions and deterioration in asset quality.

Impacts and perspectives

The local and international economic agenda continues to put pressure on the market, with investors assessing the impact of tariffs, inflation, and the Copom's decisions on the Selic rate. The expectation is that, if October's inflation comes in lower than predicted, the Central Bank may begin cutting interest rates as early as January.

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